New Shell Scenarios Sharpen Focus on Future for Society, Energy

The Hague, The Netherlands (ots/PRNewswire) -

Shell today released new scenarios that explore two possible ways
the 21st century could unfold, with dramatically different
implications for society and the world's energy system. One scenario
sees cleaner-burning natural gas becoming the most important energy
source globally by the 2030s and early action to limit carbon dioxide
emissions. The other sees solar becoming the top source by about
2070, but with slower action to address the threat of climate change.

The New Lens Scenarios, which look at trends in the economy,
politics and energy as far ahead as 2100, underscore the critical
role that government policies could play in shaping the future.

"These scenarios show how the choices made by governments,
businesses and individuals in the next few years will have a major
impact on the way the future unfolds," said Chief Executive Officer
Peter Voser.

"They highlight the need for business and government to find new
ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development
and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency."

With the world's population headed toward 9.5 billion by 2060 and
the rapid growth of emerging economies lifting millions of people out
of poverty for the first time, the scenarios project that world
energy demand could double over the next 50 years.

Called Mountains and Oceans, Shell's scenarios explore two
plausible future pathways for society. Each scenario dives into the
implications for the pace of global economic development, the types
of energy we use to power our lives and the growth in greenhouse gas
emissions. The scenarios look further into the future than many other
outlooks and highlight some surprising possible developments. Both
see global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) dropping to near zero by
2100. One factor is increasing use of technology that takes CO2 out
of the atmosphere, for instance by burning biomass to produce
electricity, and then storing emissions underground. Although the
Oceans scenario sees a dramatic increase in solar power, it also
envisions greater fossil fuel use and higher total CO2 emissions over
the century than the Mountains scenario, which will likely have more
impact on the world's climate.

The scenarios highlight areas of public policy likely to have the
greatest influence on the development of cleaner fuels and
renewables, improvements in energy efficiency and on moderating
greenhouse gas emissions. They include:

- Measures to promote the development of compact, energy-efficient cities,
particularly in Asia and other rapidly urbanising parts of the world.
- Mandates for greater efficiency in areas such as transportation and buildings.
- Policies to encourage the safe development of the world's abundant supply of
cleaner-burning natural gas -- and to promote its wider use in power generation,
transport and other areas.
- A price on CO2 emissions and other incentives to speed the adoption of
technologies to manage emissions, particularly carbon capture and storage (CCS).

Mountains

The Mountains scenario imagines a world of more moderate economic
development in which policy plays an important role in shaping the
world's energy system and environmental pathway. Cleaner-burning
natural gas becomes the backbone of the world's energy system, in
many places replacing coal as a fuel for power generation and seeing
wider use in transport.

A profound shift in the transportation sector sees global demand
for oil peaking in about 2035. By the end of the century, cars and
trucks powered by electricity and hydrogen could dominate the road.
Technology to capture carbon dioxide emissions from power stations,
refineries and other industrial installations becomes widely used,
helping to reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector to zero by
2060. Another factor is the growth of nuclear power in global
electricity generation. Its market share increases by around 25% in
the period to 2060.

With these changes to the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions
begin to fall after 2030. Nevertheless, emissions remain on a
trajectory to overshoot the target of limiting global temperatures
rise to 2 degrees Celsius.

Oceans

The Oceans scenario envisions a more prosperous, volatile world
with an energy landscape shaped mostly by market forces and civil
society, with government policy playing a less prominent role. Public
resistance and the slow adoption of both policies and technology
limit the development of nuclear power and restrict the growth of
natural gas outside North America. Coal remains widely used in power
generation until at least the middle of the century.

Without strong support from policymakers, carbon capture and
storage catches on slowly. By mid-century CCS captures only about 10%
of emissions, growing to about 25% in 2075. This slow uptake is the
main reason electricity generation becomes carbon-neutral some 30
years later in the Oceans scenario than in the Mountains scenario.

Higher energy prices encourage the development of hard-to-reach
oil resources, as well as the expansion of biofuel production. Oil
demand continues to grow through the 20s and 30s, reaching a plateau
after 2040. Liquid fuels still account for about 70% of road
passenger travel by mid-century.

High prices also spur strong efficiency gains and the development
of solar power. By 2070, solar photovoltaic panels become the world's
largest primary source of energy. Wind energy expands at a slower
pace, due to public opposition to large installations of wind
turbines. Elevated demand for coal and oil, a lack of support for CCS
and less natural gas development outside of North America contributes
to about 25% higher total greenhouse gas emissions than in the
Mountains scenario.

To explore Mountains and Oceans in more detail, download Shell's
New Lens Scenarios at http://www.shell.com/scenarios.

Shell has a 40-year history of using scenario planning to explore
possible future landscapes and aid strategic decision-making. The
latest publication continues a tradition of sharing summaries of the
scenarios to contribute to the public debate about possible ways to
tackle some of society's long-term challenges.

Notes to Editors

Royal Dutch Shell plc

Royal Dutch Shell plc is incorporated in England and Wales, has
its headquarters in The Hague and is listed on the London, Amsterdam,
and New York stock exchanges. Shell companies have operations in more
than 100 countries and territories with businesses including oil and
gas exploration and production; production and marketing of liquefied
natural gas and gas to liquids; manufacturing, marketing and shipping
of oil products and chemicals and renewable energy projects. For
further information, visit http://www.shell.com

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