At Platts Energy Podium, EIA Chief Says Oil 'Could' Fall Below US$100

Washington (ots/PRNewswire) -

Crude oil prices "could" fall below US$100 per barrel over the
next 18 months on slowing worldwide demand and an increase in oil
production, Energy Information Administration (EIA) chief Guy Caruso
said Tuesday.

Caruso made the comment to reporters at the Platts Energy Podium
in Washington.

"I think [prices] could fall below US$100 a barrel on slowing
global demand and rising production in the US, Brazil and Canada, and
from OPEC states such as Saudi Arabia and Angola," Caruso said.

While Caruso said "most of the risk is on the upside," and that
it was not the official EIA prediction, he added that a scenario of
falling oil prices is "now closer to 50-50" if worldwide spare
production capacity continues to increase from the current 1.5
million barrels per day (b/d) to 3-4 million b/d while global oil
demand softens.

"That scenario is now more realistic than any time in the past
five years," said Caruso, who will leave EIA in September.

A decline in oil prices also "opens up the possibility of
conflict in OPEC" as the producers' group debates whether to trim
output, Caruso said.

EIA earlier this month said it expected oil to remain at US$120
to US$130/b in 2008. Crude oil prices reached a record US$147.27/b on
July 11. Prices have fallen more than 20% since then on waning
demand.

Caruso also reiterated that releasing oil from the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve, or the home heating oil reserve, would have little
effect on prices. "I think it would be more valuable to save it for
real emergencies," he said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats, including Senator
Barack Obama, the presumptive presidential nominee, have urged
releasing about 70 million barrels of crude oil from the nation's
emergency reserve, about 10% of the US supply, to cut gasoline
prices.

Caruso said that even if oil prices continued to fall, it would
be unlikely that many policies, such as the Renewable Fuels Standard,
which requires the use of 9 billion gallons of biofuels in the US in
2008, might be rolled back or reduced.

"There's no going back," he said. "We're near a tipping point
here."

Caruso said that the debate in Congress over more drilling in the
Outer Continental Shelf and the Gulf of Mexico as well as reining in
oil speculators also had little to do with the decline in crude oil
prices. Increasing oil "by small increments over long periods of time
doesn't have a lot of impact on price."

Sponsored by Platts, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies,
Platts Energy Podium provides an ongoing forum for prominent
newsmakers and the press to address important energy and
environmental issues. Members of the media may receive complementary
registration for Energy Podium events by contacting Nancy Covey at
+1-202-942-8719, Nancy_Covey@platts.com. A recording of the Guy
Caruso session is available via podcast at
http://platts.com/energypodium/index.xml/ .

About Platts: Platts, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies
(NYSE: MHP), is a leading global provider of energy and commodities
information. With nearly a century of business experience, Platts
serves customers across more than 150 countries. An independent
provider, Platts serves the oil, natural gas, electricity,
emissions, nuclear power, coal, petrochemical, shipping, and metals
markets from 17 offices worldwide. Platts' real-time news, pricing,
analytical services and conferences help markets operate with
transparency and efficiency. Traders, risk managers, analysts, and
industry leaders depend upon Platts to help them make better trading
and investment decisions. Additional information is available at
http://www.platts.com .

About The McGraw-Hill Companies: Founded in 1888, The McGraw-Hill
Companies (NYSE: MHP) is a leading global information services
provider meeting worldwide needs in the financial services, education
and business information markets through leading brands such as
Standard & Poor's, McGraw-Hill Education, BusinessWeek and J.D. Power
and Associates. The Corporation has more than 280 offices in 40
countries. Sales in 2007 were US$6.8 billion. Additional information
is available at http://www.mcgraw-hill.com .

Web site: http://www.platts.com
http://platts.com/energypodium/index.xml
http://www.mcgraw-hill.com

ots Originaltext: Platts
Im Internet recherchierbar: http://www.presseportal.de

Contact:
Asia: Casey Yew, +65-653-06552, Europe: Shiona Ramage,
+44-207-1766153, Kathleen Tanzy, +1-212-904-2860,
kathleen_tanzy@platts.com