Flexibility is the key as shipping transitions to a lower carbon future (FOTO)

Hamburg (ots) -

DNV GL - Maritime has released the third edition of its Maritime
Forecast to 2050 at London International Shipping Week 2019 (LISW).
The Maritime Forecast examines the future of the shipping industry in
a rapidly changing global energy landscape. This year's report
focusses on the challenge of reducing the carbon intensity of the
global fleet to meet the ambitious targets set by the IMO's
greenhouse gas reduction (GHG) strategy.

"Existing technology can deliver the future we desire - including
meeting the 1.5°C target set out in the Paris Agreement," said Remi
Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV GL. "So far, support for the
energy transition has been too sporadic. We need a broad and
coordinated policy agenda that supports new technologies as they
emerge and sustains that support through the build-out phase."

A combination of external market pressure and the ambitious
direction set by IMO means that the challenge of decarbonization has
been laid squarely on shipping's doorstep. To answer the question of
how shipping will rise to meet the challenge, this year's Maritime
Forecast examines how the world fleet measures up in terms of
decarbonization and looks at different strategies and pathways the
industry can take to reach this goal.

The Maritime Forecast to 2050 analyses three regulatory scenarios
(continuing under current policies, regulations becoming gradually
stricter, or very strict regulations introduced towards the end of
the 2050 deadline) and how these could affect the transition to low
and carbon neutral fuels. Improvements in general energy efficiency
in on-board operations is also included as an essential part of
reducing emissions.

"One of the key components to meet the decarbonization challenge
is fuel flexibility, as the fuels of today may not be the fuels of
tomorrow," said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL - Maritime. "This
means having a picture of the entire fuel ecosystem is vital, as
owners, operators, and the industry itself will have a much tougher
time adapting to a low-carbon future if they are locked into a single
choice."

Fuel flexibility and technologies to bridge changing fuel usage
have been identified in the Forecast as essential strategies for both
individual owners and the shipping industry to adapt to the energy
transition and prepare for a low carbon future. In the deep-sea
segment especially, dual-fuel solutions and alternative fuel "ready"
solutions could smooth this transition, by laying the groundwork for
a future retrofit. Combined with bridging technologies such as
adaptable storage tanks, onboard systems and shore-side fuel
infrastructure, this could give the industry more options as new
fuels and technologies emerge.

"Ships built today will have to compete with vessels coming onto
the market in five, ten or 15 years' time, and must consider future
standards to remain competitive," said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen.
"Considering the uncertain future that lies ahead, failing to be
future-proof in the newbuilding phase could lead to that asset being
stranded in the not so distant future. In addition, CO2 emissions
could become an important rate differentiator and we have already
seen forward-looking charterers start down this road."

The Forecast shows that the uptake of low-carbon and
carbon-neutral fuels is essential to meeting IMO GHG goals, with
carbon-neutral fuels having to supply 30-40% of the global fleet's
total energy by 2050. Under different regulatory pathways, however,
the model predicts that a variety of fuels could come to the fore. In
all of the pathways, liquefied methane (from both fossil and
non-fossil sources) provides a large part (40-80%) of the fuel mix at
2050. The Forecast also suggests that in the deep-sea sector,
ammonia, biodiesel, liquid biogas and electrofuels are promising
carbon neutral options, with battery, hybrid, and hydrogen solutions
being potential options for the short-sea segment.

The ongoing energy transition is starting to reshape the shipping
industry, with much uncertainty on the way to 2050. DNV GL's Maritime
Forecast to 2050 hopes to offer the industry a vision of the changes
ahead, offering guidance, highlighting trends, and providing valuable
insights for maritime stakeholders. The Maritime Forecast to 2050 is
part of a suite of Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) reports produced
by DNV GL. The ETO has designed, expanded and refined a model of the
world's energy system encompassing demand and supply of energy
globally, and the use and exchange of energy between and within ten
world regions.

You can download the full Maritime Forecast to 2050 here:
http://eto.dnvgl.com/2019/download

Contact:
Nikos Späth, Head of Media and Public Relations
DNV GL Maritime Communications
Phone:+49-40-36149-4856
Email:nikos.spaeth@dnvgl.com

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